Please donate to [ Ссылка ] to support my research and videos joining the dot on abrupt climate system mayhem

AMOC Collapse Probability by 2050 Pegged Between 42% and 76% in new Preprint

The Atlantic Ocean's currents are on the verge of collapse. This is what it means for the planet
[ Ссылка ]

NASA visualization of ocean currents: Perpetual Ocean
[ Ссылка ]

Earth Nullschool visualization of ocean currents:
[ Ссылка ]

Google Earth
[ Ссылка ]

New preprint paper: Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Collapse
Abstract
There is increasing concern that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may collapse this century with a disrupting societal impact on large parts of the world. Preliminary estimates of the probability of such an AMOC collapse have so far been based on conceptual models and statistical analyses of proxy data. Here, we provide observationally based estimates of such probabilities from reanalysis data. We first identify optimal observation regions of an AMOC collapse from a recent global climate model simulation. Salinity data near the southern boundary of the Atlantic turn out to be optimal to provide estimates of the time of the AMOC collapse in this model. Based on the reanalysis products, we next determine probability density functions of the AMOC collapse time. The collapse time is estimated between 2037-2064 (10-90% CI) with a mean of 2050 and the probability of an AMOC collapse before the year 2050 is estimated to be
59 ± 17%.
[ Ссылка ]

I repeat the last sentence of this abstract:

The collapse time (of the AMOC) is estimated between 2037-2064 (10-90% CI) with a mean of 2050 and the probability of an AMOC collapse before the year 2050 is estimated to be
59 ± 17%.

That is a probability of between 42% and 76% for an AMOC collapse before 2050. 2050 is only 26 years from now.

Wow. Mind boggling...

Towards two decades of Atlantic Ocean mass and heat transports at 26.5°
[ Ссылка ]

Global and European climate impacts of a slowdown of the AMOC in a high resolution GCM
[ Ссылка ]

Climate impacts of a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a warming climate
[ Ссылка ]

Persistent freshening of the Arctic Ocean and changes in the North Atlantic salinity caused by Arctic sea ice decline
[ Ссылка ]

RAPID: 26 degrees N: Monitoring the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to understand climate change:
[ Ссылка ]

Deeper and stronger North Atlantic Gyre
[ Ссылка ]

Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation
[ Ссылка ]

Current Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakest in last millennium
[ Ссылка ]

Google Scholar: AMOC weakening
[ Ссылка ]+
[ Ссылка ]

Impacts of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation weakening on Arctic amplification
[ Ссылка ]

Perplexity.ai summary: AMOC Weakening:
[ Ссылка ]

Please donate to [ Ссылка ] to support my research and videos joining the dot on abrupt climate system mayhem

свернуть