Forex Trading Insights: Bearish Dollar Below Moving Averages

Forex Trading Pro Matt provides an in-depth analysis on key levels to watch on major dollar pairs ahead of upcoming news events and policy speeches. With the dollar index rejected at resistance and unable to break back above its 20 period moving average, he notes a bearish outlook for the greenback as long as it remains below this key MA. Matt points to consolidation on pairs like USD/JPY and EUR/USD indicating continued dollar weakness. However, he cautions levels like 107 on EUR/USD and 150.75 on USD/JPY need to hold as support to prevent a breakdown. Overall, Matt recommends watching how dollar pairs react to comments from Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde this Thursday to determine if bearish momentum continues or if the dollar can bounce back above its moving averages. Using Moving average analysis and identification of major support and resistance, Matt provides forex traders with insightful analysis to capitalize on dollar weakness.

Outline

Overview
Reviewing dollar index at a key support/resistance level seen previously at the 20 period moving average
Bias is down below the 20 period MA based on recent price action

Key Levels

Dollar Index (DXY)
Rejected at 20 period MA after two attempts to break above
Needs to hold support at 20 period MA around current level of 138
Otherwise next support is major quarter area below current level

USD/JPY (UJ)
Rejection again at resistance of 151
Consolidating between 151 and 150.75 minor quarter level

EUR/USD (EJ)
Watching to hold support at 107
100 period MA crossing over 200 period MA, would put MAs in order
Area around 107 could see sell-off or buyers on Lagarde comments

AUD/USD (AJ)
In near-term neutral after bounce up and down
Moving averages going sideways
More near-term bearish after losing 20 period MA
Needs to hold support at 50 period MA

EUR/JPY (EJ)
Breaking decade long trend of staying above 20 period MA
Needs to regain 20 period MA
Finding support at 50 period MA and minor level
Watching to see if downward trend continues or bounces

Key Events
Powell speaking Thursday
Lagarde speech Thursday afternoon and evening
Australia monetary policy Thursday night

Conclusion
Watching key dollar pairs and levels around news events for directional bias
Levels to watch for support/resistance
Downside bias below moving averages

Transcript

So what we're looking at today is we actually have the dollar at a place that we've seen it before. We've seen the dollar at this same exact place before.

And so one of the things that was just shared on a coaching call that we have on Wednesdays is that we have the 20 period moving average here. And because of the, at the time it was sitting on its 20 period moving average. But what I was sharing is that the natural bias with it being underneath all of its moving averages and because of the move that it's had off of the weekly open and off of the wild card area, naturally the biases as far as off of this bounce is if it does not show strength through that longer period moving average, being the 20 period moving average, then it's a rejection.

And so again, it made two attempts here. So after that comes back down here to the 20 period moving average and is now getting rejected from the 20 period moving average. So tomorrow we do have Powell speaking again.

And so when Powell speaks again, we'll see how the dollar responds to him speaking later on in the day. We also have for the euro. We have there as far as President Lagarde, that speech being there in the afternoon as well as at night, we have for the Australian dollar, we have their monetary policy statement.

And so all of those will move each particular currency. But what we're watching, again, we're looking to see what the dollar does. We talked about this earlier on the call as well.

So again, underneath 138, it will need to be caught by a moving average because the next location underneath it is a major quarter area. So it will need to be caught by a moving average here in this area because there's nothing else to catch it. And so its moving average will need to catch it here in order for this to continue.

And then we also see for the UJ idea, again, this rejection at 151. And so we'll see how this continues to respond at 151 because again, we have been getting some nice little consolidation here in between 151 and the minor quarter level of 150 75. So again, another area for us to watch there, we also have for the other ideas that we share that have news that's coming out as far as the euro being one of them, the euro here above 107.
So again, looking to hold 107 does have its 100, getting ready to cross over its 200. That would put all of its moving averages in order. This one is down for the week.

Support: support@toptradingpros.com

Disclaimer:
[ Ссылка ]

свернуть