The 250K Portfolio was down -$2,650 and the 50K Portfolio was down -$575. We are at a worse case drawdown, waiting to bounce, risking about 3k on an intra-day stop loss for tomorrow's trade while we wait for a bounce. If we hit that 3k loss intra-day on the 250K Portfolio, we will stop and pull back on the strategies we are trading to favor less strategies that can capture the big moves but don't trade as frequently.
We are still up on the quarter and up on the year while we are down about 6% on the month.
The last time we had such a low winning percentage was August 2022 and December 2022, when we hit 25% winning days in the last 12. The last two times this happened, we had +$50K gains the next 30 days. If ranges remain compressed, I anticipate that it will be difficult to make big gains. I do anticipate we will have a cycle of winning days, even if they are smaller winners.
The extremely narrow ranges are concerning as we saw the Nasdaq futures trade in a 30 point range the last two hours of trading today. This is highly unusual and very difficult to profit from as the market has no tone or direction and the price action is very random. It seems like the market is waiting for the debt ceiling resolution. We are in a market environment that spends most of its time waiting for the next event while chopping around. Historically, when markets have this type of uncertainty, there are more tradeable moves instead of price action that represents apathy. We continue to see the markets chop while waiting for the next event and then continue to chop after the event. The last time there was a move in the market, there was no real news to serve as a catalyst.
Technically there is resistance above the market and the market is trading in a way that it could gap up for tomorrow's trade, since there is no real news.
The market seems determined to not give up a trend though since Q2 began.
The last equity peak was on May 5th with a Gap up and Continuation day. Before May 5th, the market was very difficult to trade. Overall, we have only had one day all month with favorable price action. All other trading days have felt like there is a force against us as the market has been reversing on our net position most of the month.
We go over the drawdown curve in the Portfolio Calculator and the Multicharts Portfolio Trader.
