Is a soft landing still possible? Are we in a delayed recession? Or are we witnessing a silent global recession? Could a 2023 recession be worse than 2008?
Tavi Costa, Partner and Macro Strategist at Crescat Capital, joins us in a conversation to understand the complexities of the current macroeconomic landscape and its unprecedented challenges resulting in a perfect storm.
Tavi explains how a worrying US trade deficit and fiscal deficit can contribute to worsen the existing fragility of financial markets. Although the labour market shows strength, we dive into the different recession indicators that could shatter a heavily leveraged economy. We also discuss why inflation will remain elevated, implying higher federal funds rates and the case for stagflationary times but most importantly how resource-based economies could see stronger growth in a commodity-driven decade.
On the asset price action, the commodity bull run could bring gold at $10,000 / ounce by 2030 and replace bonds as reserve assets in the quest for a balanced portfolio. On the contrary, overvalued and speculative tech stocks bubbles could burst and wreck havoc in financial markets.
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🗓️ Recording date: 24/07/23
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⏰ Topics ⏰
00:00 Intro
04:24 Trifecta of macro problems: debt, inflation, speculation
10:10 Sectors that do well in downturns
14:48 Recession indicators
24:20 Cheap opportunities to bet on rising volatility
28:16 Housing market, oil and commodities
31:05 Tech stocks at risk to crash
32:58 Stagflation
34:00 Problem is government related
35:22 Alarming US fiscal and trade deficits
44:11 Risk of debt markets collapsing
51:40 Central bank reserves: Gold vs Bitcoin
55:53 Bullish on BRICS & resource-based economies
59:00 Gold's preparing for new all time high
01:05:00 Will governments ban gold?
01:11:00 Tavi's tip
⚠️ DISCLAIMER ⚠️
The views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of any entities they represent.
The information provided in this video statement is not an offer, investment advice, or financial service. It is also not intended to encourage you to buy or sell a product or to purchase a service from GoldRepublic, nor as a basis for an investment decision. A decision to invest in a GoldRepublic product can and may only be based on the information contained in a final prospectus and any Key Investor Information and other information about the product concerned (such as annual or semi-annual results). This information is available on the website (www.goldrepublic.com). If necessary, call in an advisor.
#crisis #bonds #recession
