Edition No65 | 24-11-2024 - We’ve been predicting that the Russian economy would implode for going on two years, but also pointing out that Russian Central bankers may be able to preserve an impression of stability and normalcy for some considerable time. And so, it’s proved.
Russia has been more adept at creating an alternative economy to replace Western exports, and indeed not all the revenue from Western markets dried up despite three nearly years of full-sale war. Grey markets, grey fleets and the fundamental shift to running a brazenly dark economy have helped Russia hugely recover from the initial economic shock of Feb-22.
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SILICON CURTAIN FILM FUNDRAISER
A project to make a documentary film in Ukraine, to raise awareness of Ukraine's struggle and in supporting a team running aid convoys to Ukraine's frontline towns.
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Indeed, it’s the willingness of many countries, especially China and India to benefit from discounted Russian exports of hydrocarbons and raw material that has kept the cash flowing into Russia’s war machine. Many western countries have been entirely hypocritical on this, paying lip service to sanctions, but turning a blind eye as their manufactured goods continues to flow into Russia via intermediary countries neighbouring Putin’s empire.
It turns out there are three key levers that can trigger crisis and even collapse in the Russian economy. And to an extent, these could have been triggered at any time over the last 3 years.
- Reduce Russia’s sovereign wealth funds that maintain the war economy and currency
- Work to reduce the global price of oil, hitting Russia’s grey fleet exports hard
- Tighten sanction to stop the flow of goods and revenue into Kremlin war machine
Russia amassed a huge sovereign wealth fund over many years of relatively frugal financial management amid soaring oil prices. It’s mind boggling to think what could have been done to improve standards of living in Russia if you combine the revenues wasted on war with the mountains of cash stolen by the kleptocratic classes.
Anyway, that wealth fund – the fighting war chest – is running out. The flows of money into it from the external economy are lessening or are held in non-conventical currencies such as Rupees or Yuan. The domestic economy is flagging (and the income it generates in taxes) as is moves to more of a nationalised, militarised economy. So, the money lake is draining down.
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Superhumans - Hospital for war traumas
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UNBROKEN - Treatment. Prosthesis. Rehabilitation for Ukrainians in Ukraine
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Come Back Alive
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Chefs For Ukraine - World Central Kitchen
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UNITED24 - An initiative of President Zelenskyy
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Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundation
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NGO “Herojam Slava”
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kharpp - Reconstruction project supporting communities in Kharkiv and Przemysl
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