IS THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY REALLY RECOVERING?

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Waning consumption support from remittances, deep pandemic scarring, and still high COVID-19 infections pose risks to the economic recovery of the Philippines, think tanks said on Tuesday. In a report, Pantheon Macroeconomics senior Asia economist Miguel Chanco said the “bump” in cash remittances sent back home by Filipinos working and living abroad during the middle of this year was “fading.”

Despite the 5.1-percent year-on-year growth in remittances flows in August, Chanco said “the result would have been much softer if not for a favorable base effect, as inflows fell by 2.1 percent month-on-month, easily reversing the 0.4-percent gain in July and marking the first decline since April.” “The decline lends weight to our suspicion that the near 6-percent spike in June was a one-off, stemming largely from Filipinos overseas transferring more money than usual, to take advantage of the peso’s June-to-July sell-off” when the currency crossed the 50:$1 mark, Chanco said. It did not help that the number of overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) has been declining since five years ago and further reduced by the COVID-19 pandemic, which sent the global economy crashing last year. “The renewed momentum in global oil prices should bode well for transfers from the Middle East, which account for just under a fifth of the total. But the link between oil prices and remittances has deteriorated substantially, due to the bigger decline in OFW numbers in the Gulf region compared to the rest of the world,” Chanco said.

In a separate report, Oxford Economics global macro research director Ben May said that “among the larger emerging market economies, we see the Philippines, Indonesia and India faring particularly badly, consistent with the IMF’s (International Monetary Fund) view that developing Asia will suffer the deepest scars.”

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