Pavel is a decision scientist and co-founder at Pytho, using decision science to measure and improve human judgment & prediction. He has a phd in psychology and decision science from the University of Pennsylvania, focusing on crowd predictions. If you like the show subscribe to the channel and give us a 5-star review. Subscribe to Daliana's newsletter on www.dalianaliu.com/ for more on data science.
Daliana's LinkedIn: [ Ссылка ]
Daliana's Twitter: [ Ссылка ]
Pavel's twitter: [ Ссылка ]
Superforecasting book, based on the Good Judgment Project:
[ Ссылка ]
Blogs about forecasting:
Vox's Future Perfect series: [ Ссылка ]
Astral Codex Ten: [ Ссылка ]
Highlights:
00:00 - Intro
00:01:10 how he got into decision science
00:08:08 finding super forecasters
00:14:38 what makes someone a super forecaster
00:15:11 what is more important is to update on new information
00:16:20 three elements of becoming a super forecaster
00:20:11 the Wisdom of Crowd
00:24:37 how to effectively update our opinions
00:30:05 how he designed experiments to find out what was a better system
00:33:09 what is the difference between making a prediction over the political campaign vs live science trials
00:48:27 humans sometimes are better at adjusting to the changing rules than algorithm
01:14:50 how to collect data and information better
01:30:09 mistakes in his career
01:33:25 it's import to know when to quit
01:37:50 things he learned from his mentor
01:42:30 the future of decision science
