Information provided by JTWC
Wind speeds and categorizations may differ from those reported by local meteorological agencies.
Usagi (Philippine name Ofel, Japanese Typhoon Number 25) is located 1524 km east of Manila, Philippines, and has tracked westward at 28 km/h (15 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 6.1 meters (20 feet).
Usagi is forecast to continue tracking west-northwestward along the southern edge of a subtropical ridge to the north over the next 2 days.
After 2 days, the system will begin tracking northwestward along the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge. In around 3 days, a bifurcation scenario begins with two distinct possibilities.
The first being a recurve east of Taiwan (ECMWF depiction) and the other a westward track into the South China Sea (GFS depiction). In around 4 days, a cold surge flowing towards to southwest is the cause for the westward track into the South China Sea.
On the other hand, if the system tracks just quick enough to outpace the onset of the cold surge, a recurve will ensue. The JTWC track is placed closer to the recurve scenario due to the expectation that the vortex will remain strong enough to not get shoved southwestward along the low-level flow of the cold surge. However, there remains large uncertainty in the extended forecast and the track could shift.
Regarding the intensity of Usagi, the environment is expected to remain conducive overall over the next 3 days with a peak intensity of 185 km/h (100 knots).
After 3 days, wind shear will increase and sea surface temperatures will drop. Additionally, the cold surge will bring in cold and dry air toward the system. As a result, Usagi is forecast to quickly weaken to around 95 km/h (50 knots) at 5 days.
Model guidance is in good agreement over the next 3 days, however, as previously mentioned, a bifurcation occurs afterwards. The GFS suggests a westward and then southwestward track into the South China Sea while the ECMWF suggests a recurve. Due to this discrepancy, the JTWC forecast is placed with high confidence over the next 3 days and low confidence thereafter.
Intensity guidance is in overall moderate agreement with intensification over the next 3 days and weakening after.
The JTWC intensity forecast is placed close to consensus with overall medium confidence.
Warning Number 4. Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
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