Adam Button from ForexLive speaks with BNNBloomberg.
This week the Canadian dollar fell to the lowest level since May 2020. Excluding the pandemic and a brief rout in 2016, it’s the lowest in 21 years.
Now, it’s not entirely fair to say the loonie is struggling in a global context. It’s right in the middle of the five-year range against the euro, slightly below the five-year average against the pound and near a 15-year high against the Japanese yen.
Still, it’s weakened lately and there is one main domestic driver:
• Interest rates are working as intended, slowing the economy. If anything, the weakness is falling too hard on real estate and that’s elevating risks around housing, with Toronto condos looking particularly ripe for a rout. The spring housing market is likely to set the tone for the loonie next year.
If you ignore the context of a period of elevated inflation, the overnight rate at 3.75% is far too high for the momentum in the economy and the looming challenges. The market is pricing in a 78% chance of a 25 bps cut in December and a 22% chance of 50 bps. The central bank would be wise be more aggressive but that invites further CAD weakness.
