Video sequence: Introduction by Roberto Pasqualino (From Start to 05:45), Presentation by Ugo Bardi (From 05:45 to 42:20), Questions and Answers with Ugo Bardi (From 42:20 to End)
Speaker: Ugo Bardi – Professor at the University of Florence & Co-Author of ‘Limits and Beyond’
Biography: Prof. Ugo Bardi is the author of a number of books and articles on the subject of mineral resources and their depletion, among which the 33rd report to the Club of Rome titled “Extracted” (2014) and “The Limits to Growth Revisited” (2011) and the recent “Limits and Beyond” (2022). He is also a member of the Club of Rome and a former faculty member at the University of Florence. Ugo’s work focuses on promoting a sustainable transition to renewable energy on the basis of a quantitative energy yield analysis. In his blog “The Seneca effect” (www.senecaeffect.com) he examines among other things the “Seneca Effect”, a biophysical interpretation of the collapse of complex systems. Ugo lives in Florence (IT) with his wife Grazia.
Title of the talk: The Limits to Growth 50 years later. The role of models in studying the future
Abstract of the presentation: 50 years after the publication of the seminal report to the Club of Rome “The Limits to Growth” (1972) it is possible to reassess the role of models as tools to examine the future and, within some limits, predict it. It has been said that “all models are wrong, but some are useful.” It is true, but what does it mean in practice, especially facing an incredible proliferation of models in all fields of science? To understand this subject, I am discussing some of the best known, and most common, models, starting from “world modeling” (the subject of the “Limits to Growth” study, to move to climate models, ecosystem models, and other kind of model. The complexity of the subject is nothing less than bewildering, but it is possible to discern some trends, and produce some recommendations. Often, simpler models turn out to have a better record as predicting tools than complex ones. The case of “The Limits to Growth” is an illustration of this point: although it was a very simple model compared to the current standards, its basic scenario turned out to be able to describe the trajectory of the world system up to now.
When: 21st November 2022
Relevant books and references in the talk: Earth For All ([ Ссылка ]), Limits and Beyond ([ Ссылка ]), Extracted ([ Ссылка ]), Limits to Growth Revisited ([ Ссылка ]), The Empty Sea ([ Ссылка ]), Seneca Effect Blog (www.senecaeffect.com).
Hosted by: Cambridge Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource Governance, University of Cambridge ([ Ссылка ]), Club of Rome ([ Ссылка ]), & Conservation Research Institute, University of Cambridge ([ Ссылка ])
Supported by: Bennett Institute for Public Policy ([ Ссылка ]), Global Sustainability Institute ([ Ссылка ]), System Dynamics Society ([ Ссылка ]), System Dynamics Italian Chapter ([ Ссылка ])
The seminar series was created to celebrate the ‘50th Anniversary of the Limits to Growth’ taking place every Monday from 31st of October to 12th December 2022.
More info on the seminar series: [ Ссылка ]
To register by the 12th of December 2022:[ Ссылка ]
