(18 Aug 2020) LEAD IN:
Bahrain and Oman are the countries most likely to follow the UAE's suit and normalise relations with Israel, says an analyst.

STORY-LINE:
Last week, the United Arab Emirates said it would establish full diplomatic ties with Israel, which would make it just the third Arab nation to do so.
The dramatic announcement set off speculation over which Arab nation will be next, with attention focused on Bahrain, Oman and Sudan.
On Monday, Oman and Israel said their foreign ministers had spoken and, according to Israel, agreed to "maintain direct and continual contact".
"Israeli diplomats have made a number of trips to the Gulf in various forms or another in recent years. So, I think Bahrain and Oman are the most likely candidates for normalising relations," says Andrew Freeman, an analyst for the Middle East and North Africa at Control Risks.
For Israel, Saudi Arabia, which still has not commented publicly on the UAE's decision, would be the ultimate prize.
"Saudi Arabia is going to slowly improve its relations with Israel as well," Freeman says.
Thursday's surprise statement set off a flurry of excitement in Israel, bringing years of covert business and security ties into the open and adding an appealing tourist destination for travel-happy Israelis.
"One of the more open cooperation that we've seen recently has been around COVID-19 and vaccines for that pandemic. Plus, we've had intelligence sharing and cooperation on defence and other sectors," says Freeman.
The U.S.-brokered deal has been billed as a diplomatic breakthrough that formalises the burgeoning alliance against Iran.
"The UAE and Israeli interaction is a large part in limiting Iran's ability to threaten those two countries as well," Freeman adds.
As part of the UAE deal, Israel agreed to put on hold its plans to annex parts of the West Bank.
But the sides' interpretation of what that meant appeared to differ, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying the move was on "temporary hold" following a request by the Trump administration, and the UAE indicating it was entirely off the table.
"Any normalisation of ties between the UAE, between other gulf states down the line, doesn't really fundamentally change prospects for a two-state solution, which were effectively zero at this point anyway," Freeman says.
The accord between the countries is supposed to include direct flights, less than a three-hour journey, though that could require approval from Saudi Arabia to use its airspace.
Netanyahu said Monday work was underway to establish the flight paths.

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