"A Month Doesn't Make a Market."

What this phrase means is that if the stats for one month jump up or down in either direction, it can easily just be a temporary blip. When you see 3-4 consecutive months in a certain direction, then you can assume that there is a new trend. The September absorption rate (absorption being the most relevant statistic in predicting the market) dropped in all 3 zones in the interior, and in most places across the province. The Central Okanagan was the largest reduction down to 7.12%, well into the buyer's market range (12 to 20% is a balanced market, above 20% is a seller's market, below 12% is a buyer's market). In October the stats shot back up to higher than they were before they dropped in September. The Central Okanagan went from 7.12 % to 12.61%, the North Okanagan went from 11.96% to 16.96% and the Shuswap went from 11.61% to 13.15%. If you only consider these stats you would conclude the market is prematurely rising.

We may be seeing the beginning of the affects of the interest rate drops, but it is more likely another blip, and December/January will likely trend flat or slightly downward as we walk out of 2024 and the market slows for the winter. However, that still remains to be seen. This year has been basically flat and will likely continue that way for the rest of the year. The spring market should come early in 2025, sometime in the first quarter, and 2025 should be better than 2024. As interest rates stabilize, buyers will likely slowly jump off the fence and get into the market.

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