Cyclone Mocha has continued on its general trend of strengthening, and is now a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, equivalent to a major hurricane. The storm is currently holding off further intensification, but this is likely to resume soon as it deals with increasing wind shear. The storm is expected to peak as a Category 4 shortly before reaching the coastline, with landfall expected on Sunday afternoon or evening near the border with Myanmar and Bangladesh.
The area under threat is already troubled by mass displacement, with over 1 million refugees across Myanmar and into southeastern Bangladesh. Heavy rainfall, an unforgiving storm surge, and strong winds are likely to make conditions very challenging, particularly along the coast.
Elsewhere, a new tropical cyclone is now likely to form in the South Indian Ocean this weekend or early next week, and could develop into a hurricane equivalent cyclone out at sea.
Near French Polynesia, a tropical disturbance is also developing, although chances remain fairly low for development. We may still see a non-tropical cyclone or deep trough develop as it moves towards the southeast, with a 20% chance of seeing a tropical or subtropical cyclone.
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