Typhoon Koinu (Philippine name Jenny) unexpectedly jogged northwards this afternoon, which may have implications on its future track through southern Taiwan later in the week. The good news is that the storm peaked early today and has weakened somewhat, but remains a Category 3 on the Saffir Simpson Scale. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center expect the storm to continue gradually weakening until landfall in southern Taiwan, at which stage Koinu will be at Category 1 status. Regardless of weakening, torrential flooding rains are expected in Taiwan, particularly on the eastern mountains, where accumulations could reach 750mm.

Warnings are also in effect in the Philippines, with Signal 2 in place for the Batanes Islands. Strong winds and rainfall of up to 10 inches (250mm) could affect the islands, with lesser impacts further south in northern Luzon.

The track forecast remains uncertain, with slow movement westwards expected over the next few days as it strikes southern Taiwan, and may then reach the coast of southern China or pass just to the south. It would appear at this stage that Hong Kong is likely to receive tropical storm force winds for a time late this week or over the weekend.

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