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Russia's drone attacks on Ukraine have reached a new intensity - in September, Russia launched more than 1,300 long-range Shahed drones , far more than in any previous month. And as Forbes analyst David Gambling writes, the continued high number of drone attacks suggests that Ukraine is set for its worst winter yet.

At the same time, as the analyst writes, there are growing signs that in addition to the Iranian-developed Shaheds, Russia is using at least three other types, some of which are supplied directly from China.

The heart of the attack is the Shahed-136, known in Russia as the Geran-2, an Iranian-designed attack drone. The Shahed is slower, less powerful, and easier to shoot down than traditional cruise missiles, but it costs far less and can be produced on a large scale. Russia, however, has been continually modifying the basic Shahed. New versions have at least three types of warheads, and some are equipped with 4G modems that communicate via Ukraine’s cellular network; most recently, a Shahed was discovered with a Starlink link. They have also recently been coated in black paint to make them less visible at night.

The Wall Street Journal estimates that Russia intends to produce 500 Shaheds per month. However, the number of drones currently being launched suggests that other types are now in use.

Italmas drones are several types of drones produced by Aersocan. Product 54 is a loitering munition with a range of over 200 kilometers. Product 52 and Product 53 are two versions of the Lancet tactical kamikaze drone, and Product 55 is a "jammable" FPV kamikaze. Images of another new Russian drone appeared on social media in July. It is also smaller than the Shahed and has a different configuration. According to the Russians, the new drone is called the Gerbera and can perform reconnaissance or diversionary missions in addition to kamikaze attacks. Given that the Gerbera was shot down near Kyiv, it can fly at least several hundred kilometers. Ukrainian sources suggest that the Gerbera's primary role is as a diversionary maneuver. The most worrisome new drone is the Garpiya-3, the analyst notes. According to Reuters, the Garpiya-3 was developed by a subsidiary of Russia's state-owned arms company Almaz-Antey and has a range of about 2,000 km with a 50-kilogram warhead. Not only does the Garpiya-3 use Chinese components, it will also be manufactured in a factory in China, according to Reuters.

"If China does use its drone manufacturing capacity to supply Russia with strategic weapons, the number of drones will be limited only by Russia's ability to pay for them," Gambling notes. Ukraine has been successfully repelling attacks by 400-600 Shaheds per month, but repelling twice or three times that number with dwindling stockpiles of surface-to-air missiles will be a more difficult task.
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