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As a US ally, South Korea regularly attends NATO summits and supplies weapons to several of its countries. Analysts believe that its South Korean weapons will be compatible with those already used by Ukrainian troops. This is reported by The Financial Times.
“South Korean support for Ukraine could turn the tide of the entire conflict,” said Henry Haggard, a senior adviser at WestExec Advisors. He served as political counselor-envoy at the US Embassy in Seoul from 2021 to 2023.
“Not only do Korean firms produce world-class weapons specifically designed to help Ukraine, they also have the manufacturing capacity to deliver the necessary weapons at a pace that could be decisive,” he added.
South Korea provides indirect support to Ukraine, replenishing stocks of American 155-mm artillery shells.
Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a Korea expert at King's College London, said European countries are aware that South Korea has supplied Ukraine with more artillery shells than all European countries combined, albeit through third countries.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he was sending a representative to Seoul to make “detailed” requests for artillery and air defense systems amid the deployment of North Korean troops in Russia.
However, Seoul has so far refused to directly supply lethal aid to Kyiv, citing the country's Foreign Trade Law, which restricts arms exports “except for peaceful purposes”.
Pacheco Pardo said Seoul and Moscow have reached an understanding that South Korea will not provide direct lethal aid to Ukraine if Russia limits its support for North Korea.
Russia's involvement of North Korean troops in the war against Ukraine could result in a high level of casualties among the North Korean military. As a result, the Asian allies are unlikely to fully compensate for the personnel losses suffered by Russian forces, reports the Institute for the Study of War.
The report notes that 1, a meeting took place in Moscow between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui. The ISW report also noted that Choe's visit to Moscow comes amid reports of the deployment of 8,000 North Korean troops in the Kursk region, who are expected to soon engage in combat alongside Russian forces against the Ukrainian Armed Forces. At the same time, ISW analysts believe that despite Pyongyang's commitment to support Russia, North Korean forces are unlikely to provide a long-term solution to Russia's manpower issues.
According to Austin, Russian forces are suffering over 1,200 casualties per day, approximately 36,000 casualties per month. Recent US estimates indicate that Russia is drafting between 25,000 and 30,000 new soldiers each month, meaning it cannot replace current front-line losses at a 1:1 ratio. Thus, the 8,000 North Korean soldiers represent roughly a week's worth of losses across the entire front line.
"North Korea has committed an estimated total of 12,000 troops to Russia. It remains unclear exactly how Russia intends to leverage North Korean manpower, but the commitment of North Korean troops into the type of highly attritional offensive operations that Russia has been pursuing is very likely to lead to high North Korean casualty rates," the report states.
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