Fisher Investments’ political commentary is intentionally non-partisan. We favor no politician nor any party, assessing developments solely for potential market impact.
Fisher Investments’ founder, Executive Chairman and Co-Chief Investment Officer Ken Fisher explains how the US midterm election results will likely impact markets in coming months. Following the recent election, Republicans took control of the House and Democrats retained control of the Senate—delivering a gridlocked US government. Ken says this sets the stage for what he calls the “Midterm Miracle”, which has provided the most consistently positive 9 month period for US—and global—stocks in history.
According to Ken, starting in the 4th quarter of a midterm election year through the 2nd quarter of a President’s third year in office, US markets have been positive over 91% of the time. US markets were up nearly 20% on average over those 9-month periods. The last time a negative 9-month post-midterm period occurred in the US was in 1939, and Ken says the period has never been negative in European indexes. Ken believes a gridlocked environment lowers the risk of passing new sweeping and controversial legislation—creating a calming effect markets enjoy. Regardless of your personal feelings about the election results, Ken says the resulting gridlock is good for stocks moving forward.
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Investing in securities involves a risk of loss. Past performance is never a guarantee of future returns. Investing in foreign stock markets involves additional risks, such as the risk of currency fluctuations. The foregoing constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. Nothing herein is intended to be a recommendation. The opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
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