By all accounts, Yogi Berra had it right. “It's tough to make predictions,” he said, “especially about the future.” But through the use of lightning climatology, atmospheric modeling and more robust numerical data, meteorologists have been making great strides in improving the accuracy of their forecasts. Join us for the panel and follow-up Q & A, and find out how a good forecast can keep you safe, and maybe even save you money. Four weather experts will participate in this panel, which will be emceed by Nate Johnson, meteorologist and executive producer for WRAL-TV.
North Carolina is no stranger to the dangers of lightning; “Storm Data” ranks us sixth in the U.S. for the number of lightning fatalities between 1995 and 2010. Panelist Jonathan Blaes, Science Operations Officer with the National Weather Service in Raleigh, will discuss how he is working with researchers to improve the understanding and forecasting of lightning, from anticipating days with extreme or prolific lightning, to predicting the transition of cumulus clouds from a typically harmless shower to a potentially deadly thunderstorm.
Panelist Matthew J. Parker, Senior Fellow Meteorologist with the Savannah River National Laboratory in South Carolina, will explain how he uses weather forecasts to help large businesses save money. “For example, if the customer requires 4 hours of wind speeds less than 10 mph sometime during a given week, I can handle that. If the customer needs to avoid freezing temperatures for several days when pouring a concrete foundation, I can handle that. In both cases, an erroneous forecast can result in a financial loss. The more specific the requirements, the easier the forecast is to make. This may be counter-intuitive, but it's true.”
What’s the best weather forecast for efficient wind and solar energy use? Panelist Joel Cline, a meteorologist with the Department of Energy, will discuss how accurate weather predictions impact the economy of the U.S. as a whole as well as each of us individually as rate payers of utilities. He will also discuss a possible pathway forward to overcoming the gaps in forecasting.
Professor Gary Lackmann from NC State University’s Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences will join the panel to reflect on improvements in numerical weather prediction, to discuss ensemble prediction and the probabilistic nature of weather forecasting, and to explain challenges associated with data overload and translating model output into useful end-user information.
