A recent survey Koc University and polling agency KONDA reported that participants think consumer inflation is 113% vs official data of 75% in May. A debate has started among economists whether this measure is accurate. If the debate reaches the general public, President Erdogan and Central Bank are in deep trouble.
In Turkey, wages, salaries and pensions are hiked regularly to compensate the recipients for past inflation. But, WHICH inflation? The survey results will add fuel to the raging controversy about official inflation figures being lowballed to suppress inflation and lower fiscal expenditures at the expense of condemning every increasing number of low-income citizens to poverty. Monetary policy will have to be tightened further.
In summary the Koc U - KONDA survey open a can of worms for Erdogan and his economy czar Mehmet Simsek. What is next, then?
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