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The Russian military-political leadership is likely preparing provocations in the Kremlin-controlled separatist region of Transnistria in Moldova. A "false flag" operation aims to destabilize the country and undermine Chișinău's European integration efforts, the analysts from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report.
The experts' report indicates that Moscow is likely creating informational conditions for this operation in the unrecognized Transnistria.
ISW analysts believe such actions are part of Russia's ongoing efforts to "destabilize Moldova and obstruct its integration into the European Union."
The experts analyzed statements from Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service on December 23, alleging that Moldova's President Maia Sandu is "preparing a military operation plan in Transnistria."
The Russian side claimed that Moldova's military operation could "lead to war."
Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service also made unverified claims that during a meeting with Moldova's energy security leadership, Sandu allegedly urged the government to "develop a plan to establish control over Transnistria and eliminate the Russian presence in the region."
A Russian military-affiliated "war correspondent" spread these narratives, suggesting Sandu might plan an attack on Transnistria "in response to Russia halting gas transit through Ukraine." A Russian blogger even identified the potential target of such a fake attack as the Kuchurgan power station located in Transnistria.
Meanwhile, Sandu's chief of staff, Adrian Băluțel, refuted the Russian intelligence claims, stating that Moldova is not preparing any military operations in Transnistria.
Moldova's official called the Russian assertions "serious and dangerous disinformation aimed at sowing panic and distrust."
In addition, Moldova's Prime Minister Dorin Recean labeled the claims by Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service as part of the Kremlin's "hybrid warfare."
Official Chișinău reiterated that the Kremlin is attempting to destabilize Moldova.
ISW analysts noted that the Kremlin has consistently used gas and energy blackmail to destabilize Moldova's internal affairs
Experts from the Institute for the Study of War believe that Russia might be using Ukraine's refusal to extend the gas transit agreement "to spread panic and distrust among Moldova's society toward the pro-Western Sandu government."
"The Kremlin may also be setting information conditions for a false flag operation in Transnistria, however," the ISW analysts added.
Recently, Moldova's President Maia Sandu suggested that a "geopolitical opportunity" might arise in the coming years to resolve the Transnistrian issue.
Meanwhile, various provocations instigated by Russia frequently occur in the so-called Pridnestrovian Moldova`s Republic, where Russia maintains its military occupation contingent.
For example, Russian media and Moscow-controlled Transnistrian public channels previously reported alleged "drone attacks" in Transnistria. Moldova's authorities, commenting on these situations, noted that such provocations no longer cause panic.
Earlier, at the end of November, official Chișinău expressed concerns about a potential humanitarian catastrophe in Transnistria in the event of a gas shortage.
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