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Based on the video and photographic evidence, it appears that Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243 was hit with some sort of smaller air defense missile while approaching Grozny, most likely on runway 08.
It is most likely that any Surface to Air (SAM) system defending Grozny would be north or Northwest of the city and the airport since that is the direction of the threat.
Evidence points to penetration on the left side of the aircraft based on the tail, the flap track fairing and internal damage.
It is likely that the aircraft was diverted to Aktau, Kazakhstan because it was the safest airport that was as far away from the combat zone as possible.
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