EXPO REAL is the most important meeting place for the real estate industry, which expects another strong year in 2019.
At the same time, there is a cloud hanging over the economy: at about 3 percent, global economic growth has reached a low point.
Prof. Dr. Gabriel Felbermayr, President, Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
"Risks, currently characterize the global economy. Risks, uncertainties, unknowns, all mean that investments are postponed for a long time and this is depressing growth, almost everywhere."
The German economy is stagnating and concerns about a recession are growing. What is the current situation in other European countries?
Hans-Joachim Lehmann, Managing Director, Warburg HIH Invest Real Estate
"I believe that the economic conditions in individual European countries are synchronised in many respects. France has similar figures, Italy is struggling with the financial crisis and Spain certainly has its own problems. But the interest rate environment is the same and the market figures prove that we have a fairly synchronized market situation.“
The countries that will be affected by Brexit are also in the same situation.
A so-called hard Brexit is becoming more and more probable, but what exactly is the impact on the industry?
Gerhard Meitinger, Managing Director, Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG
„European cities are competing to take over London’s role. That is not going to happen, it is going to be spread across Paris, Dublin and Frankfurt, but even there the forecasts of the initial expectation have been reduced in the meantime, so that the net takeover of more jobs or more land absorption will be reduced. In short, from my point of view Brexit will not have a big impact on real estate investments.
The US trade dispute is constantly experiencing new turbulences. It has destroyed money, but at the same time offers new opportunities for the market.
Prof. Dr. Gabriel Felbermayr, President, Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
"We estimate that this trade war has cost about thirty to forty billion dollars so far, and that's just a first estimate.
But there are also other possibilities - and these should not be overlooked - if the Chinese close their market to American products, then perhaps European producers will have a chance there and vice versa in the USA too. That is, the business community should have their eyes and ears open; there could be a bargain on the table somewhere."
The changes and uncertainties in the political landscape are having an impact on the real estate markets, and Europe is benefiting.
Dr. Christoph Schumacher, Head of Global Real Estate, Credit Suisse
"We see great demand, of course also here at the fair, a lot of money, not only European, but also foreign money, which is looking for the safe haven of Europe here, in this safe interest environment.
The interest rate environment, the so-called low-interest phase, remains a constant topic of discussion among exhibitors, participants and experts.
O-Ton Hans-Joachim Lehmann, Managing Director, Warburg HIH Invest Real Estate
"Low interest rates lead to stable prices, albeit at a high level. So Germany continues to be a safe haven. We have a long period of growth behind us, ten years of continuous growth, which has never happened before in this form."
In addition to the much-discussed low-interest phase, there is also the negative interest rate discussion.
Prof. Dr. Gabriel Felbermayr, President, Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
"You want to push people out of saving, into investing, into consuming, and then of course you drive them into concrete gold. Therefore, as long as we have negative interest rates in Germany, the pressure will remain high and the shift to real estate will continue. Probably not so much in Munich, Berlin or Hamburg, but rather in the second level cities."
Thus, in times of diverse uncertainties and unkowns, the real estate industry is looking for a secure investment.
Dr. Christoph Schumacher, Head of Global Real Estate, Credit Suisse
„When it comes to individual investments, you certainly have to differentiate, but I, and we are firmly convinced that Germany in particular, with its federal structure, forms a very stable basis. And our foreign investors from the Middle East, Asia and Latin America actually see Europe, and continental Europe in particular, as safe havens in the Brexit turmoil".
Trade disputes, Brexit, low and negative interest rates and the impact on the real estate industry and real estate investments: These are just some of the much discussed topics at EXPO REAL.
