Many mistakes in business look obvious in hindsight. Yet they usually take us and our organisation by surprise. What explains this paradox? This lecture explores why predictable surprises happen and what individuals and organisations can do to protect themselves from unpleasant surprises. We know a lot about how bad decisions happen. But how can we make good decisions amidst ambiguity, when everything is uncertain - even uncertainty itself? The transcript and downloadable versions of the lecture are available from the Gresham College website: [ Ссылка ] Gresham College has been giving free public lectures since 1597. This tradition continues today with all of our five or so public lectures a week being made available for free download from our website. There are currently over 1,500 lectures free to access or download from the website. Website: [ Ссылка ] Twitter: [ Ссылка ] Facebook: [ Ссылка ]

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