In this video, we're going to take a look at how you can use statistics and probability to predict the outcome of a football match. This is an essential skill for anyone looking to do some betting or Betfair trading on football matches, so if that's something you're interested in, make sure to watch this video!
In previous videos, I've covered my journey through football betting. I started by trying to win the football pools: -
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I came across a formula that helped me predict whether there would be goals in a match or not: -
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That evolved into a full pricing model, which allowed me to create a football betting strategy that was successful enough for me to be banned by bookmakers. But eventually, that didn't become a problem when betting exchanges like Betfair were born.
If you want to dig a little into how many goals will be scored in a match during the season, then also watch this video: -
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For historic football betting data and statistics, visit the forum: -
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For the spreadsheet mentioned in this video visit here: -
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00:00 - Introduction
00:55 - Background
01:58 - What is the key statistic we need in a football match
02:45 - Using historical football data to predict the future
05:50 - Why you need to create a football model
07:05 - Analysing football data to understand home and away goal data
11:00 - Creating a football prediction model for betting
15:40 - How to use and take this model to the next level
#betting #betfairtrading #football
