COVID 19 cases have increased in India over the last few days. However, the increase is marginal at the all India level as Haryana and Delhi contribute to half of the cases. The likely causes of such surge are the withdrawal of mask mandates and doing away with all the restrictions imposed earlier. This surge has caused fear of a fourth wave given India has already witnessed three waves particularly the deadly second wave caused by the Delta variant. But the data does not point to such a grim scenario as the 7 day moving average is declining as half of these cases are restricted to Delhi and Haryana. Also, no new variant has been found. But the virus itself is random, so we never know whether such a variant might emerge and cause a fourth wave.

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