The war in Ukraine is expected to expand wheat production in Argentina and Brazil, the primary wheat-producing nations in South America. Both nations will likely already increase wheat planting this season, which begins in May 2022. The high price of wheat after a significant shock to agricultural commodity markets caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine is undoubtedly an incentive for increased planting of wheat in Argentina and Brazil, as well in the United States. However, high input prices, in particular the price of fertilizer, could partially offset the incentives for increased planting of wheat in South America.

Colussi, J., G. Schnitkey and S. Cabrini. "Argentina and Brazil Could Expand Wheat Production Due to the War in Ukraine." farmdoc daily (12):48, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, April 8, 2022.
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