Econometrics? Sure. But are you familiar with the study of tasseomancy? Never given it any serious thought? Then how can you possibly understand the Chinese economy?
Your podcaster shunned traditional university education and instead sought a guild apprenticeship. Drawn to parapsychology and the occult even as a sma' one, it was natural this podcaster's inclinations were in alchemy, phrenology, gryphography, cryptozoology and economics. However, The Inquisition and Salem Trials had somewhat narrowed opportunities in these first options; opportunities which are now reserved for only the most gifted. With an aptitude optimistically scored by one high-school counselor as "average", your podcaster nevertheless found a welcome home in economics. That field was supplemented with a minor in tasseomancy.
Sometimes called tassology or tasseography, it's the study of tea leaves for the purposes of divination, fortune telling and interpreting the political economy of China. Yes, any economist can tell you about last month's results for industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment. And Jeff Snider does, in this the fourteenth episode of Making Sense.
We first steep and then drink West Lake's famous Dragon Well tea while discussing April's Treasury International Capital report, the echoes of 2013 and the Oktoberfest-in-June-like optimism of German Financiers.
But then conversation turns to the political intrigue surrounding President Xi and Premier Li. Peering inside our porcelain cups the upward strokes of the leaves indicate a stabilized GDP level. The flourishes on the lower zone denote meticulous, yet highly creative accounting. But if one observes the overall slant and the pressure of the leaves there's a suggestion of acute overcapacity, a complete lack of recovery, and a pronounced inclination toward stagnation.
If the monetary shadows are your fancy then the next time someone asks, 'Would you care for some tea or coffee? Something stronger perhaps?' - you know what to say.
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----------WHEN----------
00:49 Treasury International | Treasury International Capital Report Intro
02:52 Treasury International | QE4, 2013's Shhh!adow QE
05:34 Treasury International | 2013's Funkiness, Fails, Fed Buying On-The-Run Treasuries
12:19 Treasury International | 2013's Private Buyers Selling Treasuries En Masse, but Why?
16:09 Treasury International | Selling Treasuries Coincides with Illiquidity, Not Geopolitics
18:10 Treasury International | 2020 Private Buyers Selling Treasuries En Masse, but Why?
20:24 Bank Maturity Mismatch | Explaining the Classic Mismatch Between Funding and Investment
24:43 Germany's ZEW Survey | German Financiers in Lockstep with ECB Balance Sheet Expansion
29:37 Germany 10-Year Yield | German Bund Investors Disagree with Optimism
31:10 China Political Economy| Reading the Tea Leaves of Xi versus Li Round 1 (2014-16)
37:00 China Political Economy| Was the Chinese Goal Recovery or Recalibration? (2014-16)
40:42 China Political Economy| Reading the Tea Leaves of Xi versus Li Round 2 (2020-??)
43:49 China Political Economy| May's Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Fixed Asset Investment
----------WHAT----------
Still TIC’ed Off In The Shadows In April: [ Ссылка ]
When Sentiment Flies: [ Ссылка ]
A Chinese Outbreak (of Li v. Xi, Round 2): [ Ссылка ]
----------WHO----------
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Research at Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, who prefers his tea by leaf not by the bag. Artwork by the Yellow Mountain Fur Peak of the paintbrush, David Parkins. Podcast intro song "Asian Fork Fight" by Lenzer at Epidemic Sound. Apologies to Michele Mulroney and Kieran Mulroney, screenwriters for Warner Bros' Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows.
