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Falling for the Exception: Understanding and Avoiding the Base Rate Fallacy by Benjy Braun
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Abstract: In decision-making, we often get swept up by exceptional cases, ignoring the broader context in which they exist. This tendency, known as the base rate fallacy, can lead us to make poor judgments, whether evaluating NBA draft picks, hiring employees, or investing in startups. In this talk, we'll explore how neglecting base rates distorts our thinking, drawing from examples in sports, business, and everyday life. By understanding and accounting for base rates, we can make better, more informed decisions. Together we'll learn how avoiding this common fallacy can improve both your professional and personal choices.
Bio: Benjamin Braun is a seasoned data executive with over a decade of experience at the intersection of government technology and data science. His unique blend of technical prowess and business acumen has seen him work across more than 10 government agencies, from the realms of global security to public health. With dual master's degrees in Business Administration and Global Security Studies, Benjamin combines academic rigor with practical know-how in areas such as AI/ML, Big Data, and data visualization.
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Presented at the 2024 Government & Public Sector R Conference (October 29, 2024)
Hosted by Lander Analytics ([ Ссылка ])
