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This interview was recorded at 10am ET on Friday, August 2. The jobs report, which was released 90 minutes prior at 8:30am ET, showed the unemployment rate move non-linearly up from 4.1% to 4.3%, and the stock market fell sharply and short-term interest rate futures market priced in a high likelihood of the Federal Reserve doing a DOUBLE (50 bps) cut by its September meeting. The Fed Funds pricing changed throughout our interview and Jack references that in the conversation.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:13 Stock Market Pukes In Reaction To Horrible Jobs Report
05:45 Is The U.S. In A Recession Now?
06:01 How Passive Investing Has Driven The Stock Market Higher
28:35 VanEck Ad
29:15 Passive Flows In The Context Of Other Market Forces
32:25 Has Passive Investing Boosted Valuations of The Biggest Companies?
42:25 Will The Same Passive Forces That Boosted The Market Higher Work In Reverse Now That The Market Is Declining?
48:40 Permissionless Ad
49:39 If Passive Is A Bubble, It Can Get A Whole Lot Bigger
53:16 SPAC Flows Are No More
01:16:52 Soros-like Reflexivity of High Stock Prices
01:18:49 Mike's Views On Ongoing "Market Hiccup"
01:34:00 Mike's Closing Thoughts on Private Credit

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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