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Highlights of key events, data & short-term technical outlook by Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong to kickstart your day on 18 Oct 2024, Friday.

00:00 Start & Disclaimer
01:46 Prior Session Key Economic Data, Events & Performances of Cross Assets
23:43 Fundamentals & Intermarket Analysis
30:29 EUR/USD Technical Analysis
34:21 GBP/USD Technical Analysis
35:37 USD/JPY Technical Analysis
38:28 AUD/USD Technical Analysis
40:43 Hong Kong 33 Technical Analysis
42:42 Japan 225 Technical Analysis
44:25 Germany 30 Technical Analysis
46:50 US Wall St 30 Technical Analysis
49:12 US Nas 100 Technical Analysis
50:51 Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis
52:55 West Texas Oil Technical Analysis
54:17 Key Economic Data/Events For Today

Key events/data:
The ECB cut its key deposit rate by 25 bps, as expected, to 3.25% (its third cut in 2024). The consensus is another 25 bps cut in December. ECB President Lagarde remarked during the press conference that she did not see a recession in the euro area.

TSMC reported better-than-expected earnings results and gave positive revenue guidance for 2025. However, it did not trigger a significant positive feedback loop into Nvidia (+0.895) where the Nasdaq 100 underperformed yesterday (+0.08%) against the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.37%).

China's Q3 GDP grew 4.6% y/y, above the consensus of 4.5%.
Retail Sales for Sep grew faster to 3.2% y/y, above 2.1% in Aug, and the consensus of 2.5%.
Industrial Production for Sep rose to 5.4% y/y, above 4.5% in Aug, and the consensus of 4.6%.
House Price Index continued to plunge further to -5.7% y/y in Sep from -5.3% in Aug.

FX verbal intervention from Japan Vice Finance Minister Mimura as the JPY weakened into the 150 range against the US dollar overnight.

Fundamentals & Intermarket Analysis:
Japan's core-core CPI (excluding fresh food & energy) rose to 2.1% in Sep from 2% in Aug; three months of consecutive increases and stabilized at around 2% BoJ's desired inflation target.

The 10-year and 2-year yield spread between the US Treasury and JGB has started to inch lower again. All these observations may support a pause in US dollar strength against JPY after 4 weeks of rally in USD/JPY.

Key events/data to look out for today:
UK Retail Sales (Sep)
US Housing Starts (Sep)
Fed Speak (Bostic, Kashkari, Waller)

Key events/data to look out for next Mon, 21 Oct early Asian session:
China Loan Prime Rate (1-year & 5-year)

Short-term technical outlook:
US Wall Street 30, US Nas 100, Hong Kong 33, Japan 225, Germany 30, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, Gold (XAU/USD) & West Texas Oil.

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