Danielle DiMartino Booth, chief strategist at Quill Intelligence, joins Ed Harrison to discuss her macro-centric thesis that a recession is coming. DiMartino Booth talks about the global dollar shortage, how the United States might not be on as solid footing as the market expects, and where she sees the recessionary inflection point on the horizon. This clip is excerpted from a video published on Real Vision on July 11, 2019 entitled, “The Ugly Truth about the Federal Reserve.”
Watch more Real Vision™ videos: [ Ссылка ]
Subscribe to Real Vision™ on YouTube: [ Ссылка ]
Watch more by starting your 14-day free trial here: [ Ссылка ]
About Future Fears:
What's coming that we should all be worried about? What keeps the world s greatest investors up at night? Household names of finance discuss the terrifying potential risks posed by artificial intelligence, the rise of social media, autonomous vehicles and more.
About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™.
Connect with Real Vision™ Online:
Twitter: [ Ссылка ]
Instagram: [ Ссылка ]
Facebook: [ Ссылка ]
Linkedin: [ Ссылка ]
The US Economy Sliding into Recession (w/Danielle DiMartino Booth)
[ Ссылка ]
Transcript:
For the full transcript visit: [ Ссылка ]
DANIELLE DIMARTINO BOOTH: I like to think of big sell-side macro economists as saying, well, the car is running, so it must be fine. Well, they're just looking at the headlines. If you look underneath the hood, there's leaks here and tubes breaking there. And the engine's about to break down. And your transmission's about to fall out. So at the beginning of the year, Quill Intelligence came out with its three big predictions for the year. One of them was that Germany would go into recession. It looks like we're just about there. The other was that the 10-year note would get down to 2%. People thought we were absolutely nuts. And the third one was that despite all of this, we saw the dollar strengthening. And we're standing by all three of those calls for the remainder of the year, despite the fact that our targets have largely been met, mainly because if you look outside of the United States, there's every reason to believe that the United States will continue to be the most attractive horse in the glue factory, as my old boss Richard Fisher used to say. So on a relative basis, we've talks about the European Central Bank relaunching stimulus. I think that Japan would certainly follow them. Australia is in a cutting move after an expansion that's lasted almost 30 years, because China's slowing to the extent that it has. So if negative rates are going to be getting more negative, then there will be flocking to the 10-year treasury at the same time that we know that there aren't enough dollars out there. There's simply a dearth of dollars, a dearth of dollar funding, which is going to have investors continue to clamor to get their hands on greenbacks. So a lot of these things run cross-current to one another. But the overarching- I haven't bought gold in years. But a few months ago, I finally stepped back and said, we're not going to be decoupling forever. Everybody on Bubble Vision who says that the United States can indefinitely decouple from the rest of the world, I'm like, I've heard that somewhere, like a decade ago. And it didn't work out too well then. And I think that that's why we've seen gold pushing six-year highs here.
ED HARRISON: So let's unpack that. That's a lot in terms of the US economy, because that's where the rubber hits the road in terms of what you're talking about. And you have a bevy of stats that you look at that traditional macroeconomists aren't getting into the weeds, into these places. Tell me, what are the things that are the most salient for you in terms of where we are? Are we actually on the cusp of recession?
DANIELLE DIMARTINO BOOTH: I think that the US economy is definitely sliding into recession. And you mentioned where the rubber hits the road. I like to think of big sell-side macro economists as say, well, the car is running, so it must be fine. Well, they're just looking at the headlines. If you look underneath the hood, there's leaks here and tubes breaking there. And the engine's about to break down, and your transmission's about to fall out.
