Central Florida’s last outing saw quarterback John Rhys Plumlee have one of the worst games of his career. He completed 8 of 16 throws for just 49 yards and threw an interception. It was the second-lowest passing total of his 13 collegiate starts, dating back to his time with Mississippi. And it came … in a 17-point victory for the Knights.

That’s because Plumlee ran for 100 yards and a score on the day, part of a 56-carry, 284-yard performance from one of the best rushing attacks in the country. Through four games, the Knights are averaging the fourth-most rushing yards per game at 267.7 yards, and only five teams average more than their nearly 50 carries per game. They’re also gaining big chunks, averaging 5.4 yards per carry.

That’s bad news for Southern Methodist. While the Mustangs have an outstanding quarterback in Tanner Mordecai, their defense has been atrocious against the run this year. They’re allowing 211.7 yards per contest and 5.4 yards per carry, the 11th worst average in college football.

On the other side of the ball, UCF’s pass defense matches up well with SMU’s high-powered passing attack. It's holding teams to just a 53% completion rate — one of the lowest in the country — while allowing only 205.7 yards through the air. This is helped by the fact that only 14 teams hold the ball on offense longer than the Knights.

This game could very well come down to which team is able to convert its drives into points. UCF leads the nation in red zone defense this season with a conversion rate of 38.5%, but it's one of the worst in terms of converting once it gets inside the 20. Conversely, SMU has scored on a higher rate of red zone attempts, but not by much. The Mustangs rank 24th in red zone defense but their opponents score 75% of the time.

Plumlee has shown that he is capable of making plays with his arms, throwing for more than 300 yards in two games this season. While Mordecai can make big plays, he will have his opportunities limited by how well UCF will run the ball and control the pace of play. The Knights will punish SMU’s poor run defense the same way that TCU did, and will cover the spread.





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