There are certain books that are so deep and rich, every time I read them, I discover something new. Rise of the Robots: Technology and the threat of a Jobless Future by Martin Ford is one of them.
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Chapters
0:00 Introduction
0:38 American Goldilocks period
1:53 Factory Reshoring
3:12 Jobs in Jeopardy
4:19 Big Data Phenomenon
5:14 Perfect Storm
5:43 What's the solution?
This book which was released in 2015 analyzes the impact that AI will have on the labor market like retail, health care, education, IT, consumerism, etc. He believes that there will be a social and economic disruption because of AI and machine learning.
#1 The American Goldilocks period
There was a perfect symbiosis between rapid technological progress and the welfare of the American workforce from 1945 after WW2 to 1970. Machines were widely used to improve the productivity of the workers, which increased profits and made humans more valuable, allowing them to demand higher wages. However, after the 70s, machines proved to be better workers than humans. While this shift to automation is visible in the automotive and agriculture fields, it’s not as evident in architecture and construction.
#2 Factory reshoring
Outsourcing or offshoring is the act of moving work and jobs to another country for numerous reasons, one of them being cheaper labor. This loss of jobs in the States was evident from the 1970s to the early 2000s. However, we are now seeing companies bringing manufacturing and services back to the States from overseas, which is called factory reshoring. Robots can perform all the same tasks that humans can but they can perform them faster, cheaper and better.
#3 All jobs in jeopardy
Wherever robots enter a particular industry and make humans dispensable, humans have to move to another field. In the 1850s, 50% of all US workers were employed on farms but by 2000 less than 2% were. Thousands of people who worked in the agriculture field had to move to the city. Martin Ford believes that robots and automation are now a threat to college-educated, white collar workers too. Machines no longer just do a single repetitive task, they are constantly learning to do a variety of tasks.
#4 Big data phenomenon
Big data is the 21st century phenomenon of accumulating large volumes of structured and unstructured data every single day. Data is constantly being collected by gadgets around us like phones, thermostats, refrigerators, home assistant devices, internet providers, water and utility suppliers, etc. This data makes our lives more convenient and it makes companies more personable. Instant gratification from product purchases is our daily dopamine and serotonin release.
#5 The perfect storm
Martin Ford talks about this concept as the worst possible outcome that we could be heading towards. A situation where extreme unemployment caused by technology collides with adverse societal and environmental changes like an aging population, climate change and resource depletion. These could occur at the same time and amplify each other leading to a perfect storm would be disastrous for mankind.
So what’s the solution? Martin Ford is an advocate for universal basic income. Since automation and loss of jobs are inevitable, a stipend would help maintain social stability and a decent standard of living. The problem with holding back on automation and progress just to keep people employed and busy is that we lose our competitive edge. Other companies or countries may not make that sacrifice and they will be more powerful. But if we are engineered out of manufacturing, we lose our disposable income and we can’t buy the stuff that robots create.
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#robotics #construction #unemployment #bookreview #architecture #architect #automation
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