Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research, joins Monetary Matters to update his prior call that the US economy would not enter a recession. He explains why a soft landing is still his base case and why he thinks the Fed is properly positioned to engineer that outcome even if soft economic data forces them to cut rates more aggressively. Recorded on September 23, 2024.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:50 Why the Fed Cut 50bps
04:25 The Fed is Cutting Off the Left Tail
10:09 the Impact on Consumer and Business Lending
13:49 Outlook for Europe
15:46 Stocks vs. Bonds
18:12 Recession Odds and Unemployment Outlook
27:10 Risks to Growth
31:00 Where are Neutral Rates?
35:50 Sectors to Watch
37:10 Sticking the Soft Landing
39:25 This is NOT 2007
43:46 The Path for Inflation and Unemployment
46:13 Black Swan Risks
47:18 Housing Market Clarification
#investing #recession #stocks #economy #trading #inflation #federalreserve #economics
