Last week I talked about the enduring strengths of the Russian armed forces and their ability to launch offensives and apply pressure in Ukraine. Faced with that pressure, Ukraine's ability to carry on the fight will be driven not just by its own determination, but by the flow of weapons and assistance from its allies abroad.
Aid to Ukraine has evolved dramatically since February 2022, and there are few topics that have attracted more constant press coverage away from the battlefield itself. So today I try and set out how aid has evolved, who the major contributors are, and the impact aid has had - and may have in 2023.
Patreon:
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Caveats & Corrections:
In this episode I refer to the White House announcing periodic age packages for Ukraine - I meant to refer to the DoD
I also refer to percentages of Russian artillery in storage being towed/122mm - this is a reference to 'reserve' Russian artillery systems per MB2021 as stated on the slide.
I also wish to emphasise again that I deliberately included extreme examples of Western escalation options to illustrate a point, not as advocacy.
Sources & Further Reading:
German military support for Ukraine
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CSIS - US Security Assistance to Ukraine
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Ukraine supplemental FY2023
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Kiel Institute for World Economy figures on Ukraine support:
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Oryx: Answering the call - heavy weapons to Ukraine
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EU Training Mission Targets
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Ukraine FOREX reserves
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US plans combined arms training
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Poland repairing Ukraine equipment
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Estonia handing over all its 155mm howitzers
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Reznikov: Ukraine needs 300 tanks, 600-700 IFVs, 500 howitzers for specific operation
TASS on Escalation Risk
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CSIS on Ukraine Aid:
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Olaf Scholz steers clear of commitment to supply of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine
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U.S. funds not misused in Ukraine, U.S. Treasury says amid corruption crackdown
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UK Tanks to Ukraine
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M113s to Iraq
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Paper system counts for elements like Russian and US reserve artillery are per Military Balance 2021
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:43 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:21 — From Korea to Afghanistan
00:04:47 — AID PRE-2022
00:05:00 — The Ukrainian Military of 2014
00:08:27 — Made in Ukraine (with some help)
00:09:41 — THE AID ESCALATION
00:10:05 — Phase 1: Stop the Tanks
00:11:08 — Phase 2: Light & Heavy
00:12:10 — Phase 3: Keeping the Lights On
00:12:45 — Phase 4: Enabling Manoeuvre
00:14:31 — Phase 5: Reach
00:15:18 — HOW MUCH AID HAS GONE?
00:20:25 — What is a Thing Worth?
00:21:54 — Personal View - Focus on Type & Qty.
00:22:55 — NATIONAL AID PROGRAMS
00:23:07 — The VANGUARDS
00:23:12 — Leading the Charge
00:23:35 — Leading on Heavy Weapons
00:25:02 — Accepting Risk
00:26:42 — Pushing the Boundaries
00:27:58 — THE CAUTIOUS GIANT: US AID
00:32:11 — The Source of Deterrence
00:33:13 — LET'S TALK ABOUT GERMANY
00:36:04 — German Military Aid
00:37:08 — Messaging & Authorisation
00:39:58 — IMPACT & SCALE
00:40:06 — Finances
00:41:06 — Humanitarian & Refugee Costs
00:42:02 — Military Aid by the Numbers
00:46:36 — OTHER AID TYPES
00:50:40 — CAN IT BE ENOUGH?
00:57:07 — The Numbers are the Numbers
01:00:28 — The Trend So Far
01:01:29 — WHAT IS NEEDED?
01:01:44 — The Ukrainian Requests
01:02:49 — Solution 1: New maneuver
01:04:18 — Solution 2: Fight Like Ukrainians
01:08:35 — THE WEST IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT
01:10:25 — CONCLUSIONS
01:11:40 — CHANNEL UPDATE
