Tim Palmer delves into his work on how uncertainty and chaos play out across weather systems, economics and the human brain.

The science of uncertainty: how can we best predict the future?

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From quantum physics to climate change, the science of uncertainty can help us understand our chaotic world. Join Oxford Professor of Climate Physics Tim Palmer as he argues that the mathematics of uncertainty is vital to progress.

#chaostheory #weatherforecasting #butterflyeffect

Tim Palmer is an internationally renowned meteorologist and Professor at the University of Oxford. He works on the tough, crucial problems of uncertainty in our weather and climate, drawing on his background in fundamental physics to do so. He was appointed as CBE in the 2015 New Year’s Honours list for services to science and has won numerous other awards in recognition of his world-leading work.

00:00 Introduction
00:37 The primacy of doubt
01:33 Backstory
03:44 Quantum mechanics
05:11 The most fundamental question in physics
05:40 My dilemma
07:22 Michael Fish
08:30 Chaos theory
10:47 Weather forecasting
12:32 Calculating probability
13:10 Predicting hurricanes
14:47 Predictive humanitarian aid
16:00 Economic forecasting

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