"Mining observations and climate models for detecting and attributing anthropogenic climate change in the world’s water cycle"
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08.10.2020
2nd CASUS Annual Workshop 2020
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Abstract:
"One of the key concerns with anthropogenic climate change are its effects on the terrestrial water cycle. Model projections indicate that anthropogenic climate change can affect regional water availability and may trigger more floods and droughts. While there is mounting evidence showing human impacts in the atmospheric part of the water cycle, the limited availability of relevant observations has so far prevented an unambiguous detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change in terrestrial water resources and hydrological extremes. Recent advances in mobilizing in situ observations around the globe and breakthroughs in data-driven reconstructions of essential freshwater variables using machine learning allow now for an unprecedented assessment of global hydrological change. Causal drivers of observed change are investigated using climate change detection and attribution methods, that ingest both observational information and model based evidence. The analysis allows to conclude that it is very likely that anthropogenic climate change is already impacting water resources and hydrological extremes at the global scale."
