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Narrator: Nate Barber

Video slides:

RAM

How to Size Equipment to Maximize ROI

-What is a Monte Carlo simulation?

*Usually uses random numbers as opposed to deterministic algorithms

*Uses a repetition of “trials” or “missions” to predict overall production levels (On-Stream Factors)
*Mission length often the life of a facility
*Each mission:
-Calculate production level, move forward in time
-Equipment fail “randomly” according to their PDF
-Repeat

*Many missions needed for statistical significance

-Why perform a RAM study?

*NOT to improve reliability!
-Reliability is an input to the study, not an output
-Real output is On-Stream Factor (OSF)

*Show the value of improved reliability or capacity
-Which equipment configuration yields the highest ROI?
-Where are the equipment availability bottlenecks?
-Where are the maintenance activity bottlenecks?

*A bank financing a project requires it
-Ability to pay loan depends on ability to make products

-Why perform a RAM study?

*NOT to improve reliability!
-Reliability is an input to the study, not an output
-Real output is On-Stream Factor (OSF)

* Show the value of improved reliability or capacity
-Which equipment configuration yields the highest ROI?
-Where are the equipment availability bottlenecks?
-Where are the maintenance activity bottlenecks?

*A bank financing a project requires it
-Ability to pay loan depends on ability to make products

-How to perform a RAM study

*Collect and document assumptions in a Study Basis
-Collaborative document to gain team agreement

*Define failure logic in a RBD (ABD)
-The effect to the system if this thing goes offline

*Start developing stochastic model
-Keep it as simple as possible until simple isn’t enough
-System complexity may require Monte Carlo simulation

*Start running model according to Study Basis
-Does the model need to change to better reflect reality?
-Do assumptions need to change to better reflect reality?

*Collect and document results in a Final Report

-Available Software

*ReliaSoft
-BlockSim

*WS Atkins plc
-RAMP

*DNV GL
-Maros
-Taro

*Opgrade tools
-Reliable Process Manager (RPM)
-Microsoft Excel custom functions

-How to perform a RAM study

*Items in parallel: Generalized Binomial Function

p = probability equipment is online =
n = number of equipment in parallel
k = number of equipment offline

*Items in series: simple product

*OSF for one item = p

*On-Stream Factor of 3 x 50% pumps =

*If MTBF is 3yrs & MTTR is 24hrs
-2 x 100% pumps, OSF = 99.99992%
-3 x 50% pumps, OSF = 99.99988%
*Difference is 22 min lost productivity every 100 years


PROCESS EVALUATION TOOLS

[x] Linear Programming
Optimize profitability based on unit selection & configuration

[x] RAM Studies (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability)
Evaluate equipment bottlenecks based on reliability

[x] Dynamic Process Simulations
Evaluate pressure, temperature and flow profiles in systems

[x] Computational Fluid Dynamics
Evaluate pressure, temperature and flow profiles in equipment

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