A little over nine weeks ago, on September 21, 2018, I argued that Apple and Amazon were over valued and followed through with the decision to sell short both stocks, Apple at $230 and Amazon at $1950. On November 30, 2018, those calls make me look prescient but in this session, I posit that any gains on the position are more attributable to luck than skill. I also use my experience to argue that two widely held precepts in value investing, i.e., that intrinsic value never changes and that a long time horizon is a prerequisite for value investing are at odds with value investing first principles and need reexamination.
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