On December 1, The Jamestown Foundation held a webinar on The U.S., China and Nuclear Deterrence in the Hypersonic Era featuring Bates Gill, Professor of Asia-Pacific Security Studies and Head of the Department of Security Studies and Criminology, Macquarie University, and David Logan, Ph.D. Candidate in Security Studies, Princeton University School of Public and International Affairs.
Earlier this month, the Pentagon released its annual China Military Power Report to Congress. The report details the People’s Republic of China’s rapid progress in modernizing, diversifying and expanding its nuclear arsenal, and observes that China may already have a nascent nuclear triad. These revelations follow China’s successful tests of hypersonic weapon systems this summer. For many observers, these developments denote a departure from Beijing’s longstanding approach to nuclear weapons, which was predicated on a “no-first use policy” and maintenance of a small arsenal to achieve minimal deterrence through assured retaliation.
As China and Russia undertake rapid nuclear modernization and develop new strategic delivery systems, the U.S. is also developing its own advanced hypersonic weaponry. At the same time, the Biden administration, which is currently undertaking a nuclear posture review that will be released in early 2022, has stated it seeks to “reduce the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. national strategy”, but will seek to do so in a way that still ensures the US “strategic deterrent remains safe, secure, and effective and that our extended deterrence commitments to our allies remain strong and credible.” The administration has also requested continued funding for ongoing nuclear modernization programs, and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and other senior defense officials have expressed their support for maintaining a full nuclear triad.
In February, the Biden administration extended the New START arms control agreement with Russia, which provides a framework for reducing, limiting, and monitoring nuclear warheads and their strategic delivery systems. Under Biden, the U.S. has continued the Trump administration’s efforts to engage China in nuclear arms control talks, but has largely been rebuffed by Beijing, which claims it maintains a nuclear arsenal at the minimum level necessary to safeguard its national security. However, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has confirmed that President Biden and PRC President Xi Jinping did agree to “begin to carry forward [a] discussion on strategic stability” at their November 15 virtual summit.
