In BRI Dialogues D-29 we are joined by Diana Choyleva @choyleva a leading expert on China’s economy and politics.
Diana is Chief Economist at Enodo Economics @EnodoEconomics, an independent macroeconomic and political forecasting company she set up in 2016 to untangle complexity, challenge the consensus, and make sense of the future. ( [ Ссылка ] )
We discuss the intensity of impact, speed and direction of the growing decoupling of the world economy and bifurcation of trade and ramifications of a new global economic order.
Diana helps us to better understand the trajectory of China, its challenges relating to demographics, an ageing population and the need to continue to grow, as well countering the headwinds against redistribution of the wealth. She unpacks the stark differences between China of 1970-1989 and the era of Deng Xiaoping and the new era under President Xi, crystallising what is currently taking place in China in both policy and political terms.
As a side, we also explored the contrasting reality of the growing number of homeless in major Western metropolises such as L.A, San Francisco, London and Vancouver in contrast with the oversupply of housing in China and the eradication of poverty in China by lifting 400m people out of poverty as a success story. Are we now living two different worlds?!
Diana so skilfully argues that the eventual bifurcation does not mean that we have to face competing worlds and live in constant rivalry. We may very well witness a bi-polar model, she concedes, but we can successfully co-exist, collaborate and ideally co-develop together. In the emerging world order, China and the United States need to reduce tensions and build on their respective economic models for the betterment of their societies and also the wider world.
For 16 years prior, she worked at Lombard Street Research, most recently as Chief Economist and Head of Research. Diana joined JPMorgan Asia Growth & Income investment trust as a Non-executive Director to the Board in March 2023.
Diana has analysed China since 2000 and has co-authored three books: ‘China’s Quest for Financial Self-reliance’ (2022), ‘The American Phoenix – and why China and Europe will struggle after the coming slump’ (2011) and ‘The Bill from the China Shop’ (2006).
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