Rain and snow chances will increase in the western Texas Panhandle late this evening. The exact location of the rain/snow transition is to be determined. The best chance for accumulating snow beginning early Thursday will be on the Texas/New Mexico state line north of Interstate 40 up to Texline. It may wobble east toward Vega and Dalhart on Thursday, and it may wobble west into New Mexico. Regardless, accumulating snow and impacts to travel will be possible where we can stay all snow tomorrow and into Friday morning. New Mexico and Colorado are in for a doozy of a winter storm.

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in number and coverage across the western half of Texas tomorrow through early Friday morning. Stronger thunderstorms may produce hail, though we’re not looking at a widespread/significant severe thunderstorm threat at this time. A slightly higher threat for storms capable of producing large hail localized damaging winds, and maybe a tornado could materialize Thursday night in the eastern Permian Basin, Concho Valley, and Big Country. While plenty of wind shear will be in place, low-level instability and overall atmospheric destabilization aren’t projected to be overly impressive. There is plenty of ‘juice’ for rain and storms, but not so much for spinny-spinny doom doom potential. We’ll keep an eye on it. Heavy rain is probable with most activity tomorrow, and that will be welcome in most areas as we try to start recovering from our late-summer flash drought.

Rain and storm chances will spread to the eastern half of Texas on Friday and Friday Night. Specifically, an arcing line of thunderstorms may move from west to east during the afternoon and evening. Severe storms don’t look like a widespread issue, but hail and gusty winds could occur along with a quick round of heavy rain. The extent, intensity, and duration of rains for the eastern half of Texas look lower on Friday compared to tomorrow's western half of Texas. Most rain should exit Texas to the east after Saturday morning. A few showers will remain possible in Southeast Texas this weekend. Otherwise, most of the upcoming weekend through Tuesday of next week look low-impact and dry in the weather department.

Hurricane Rafael is moving northwest in the Caribbean this morning. It will make landfall in west Cuba this afternoon. Continuing on a northwestward trajectory, the system will enter the Gulf of Mexico tomorrow. The general five-day track forecast has it moving into the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. However, overall conditions will become hostile to the system’s health. We are not anticipating Rafael making it into our little corner of the world intact, so we’re not concerned about it at this juncture. Some moisture from the system (or whatever is left of it by early next week) may necessitate us adding shower chances for the Upper Texas Gulf Coast in future forecasts.

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