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Can Joseph Schooling win gold at the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio? I think so, if the 100 butterfly final in Rio is slow, meaning the winning time is 50.4 or 50.5.

Joe's progression in the sport points to a medal finish in Rio. Joe's a racer. His 44 100 yard butterfly and monstrous 1:37 200 yard fly at NCAA Championships was eye-opening. Swim-fans expected him to swim lightning fast--but not that fast. True, yards times don't always translate to meters, but Joe's 2015 World Championships bronze in the 100m butterfly, 50.9, proves he's Olympic-stage ready.

I still think Michael Phelps has a sub 50 in him this summer. Everything has to lineup for Phelps to do it, but it's possible. Clearly Phelps is the man to beat in Rio, but you're foolish not to keep an eye on Schooling. Joe. Is. Dangerous. He's got mean speed going out and grit coming home.

As a butterfly fan, I'd like to see:

- Phelps win in sub 50
- Schooling edge Chad le Clos for the silver
- Jack Conger in the mix

I think we all know Jack's got the talent to breakthrough. Jack tapered twice last summer, once for World University Games and again for US Summer Nationals. He swam fast in 2015, but because of the two tapers, we did not see his best effort.

I AM BIASED

As a US-based fan, I'm pulling for Phelps and Conger and every other Team USA athlete, but the 100 fly is deep with talent globally, and I always leave Laszlo Cseh out of the mix. After his recent turn at European Championships, he's clearly ready to challenge in Rio, in both the 100 and 200 fly.

Could the entire 100 butterfly final be under 50.7? I think it's possible.

Could the entire 100 butterfly final be 50.5 (winning time) to 51.1? I could see that as well if the pool and living conditions are challenging.

FINAL THOUGHT

Schooling shaves 5 tenths from his 2015 World Championships 100 fly, the 50.9. Schooling turns in a 50.4 in Rio. After a shaky 200 fly at Worlds last year, Schooling puts together a solid 200 fly final. In the video above, I called it at 1:53 low, but I think he's 1:52 something, and Schooling edges le Clos or Cseh getting on the medal podium.

What do you think?

This is a Gold Medal Media production presented by SwimOutlet.com. Host Gold Medal Mel Stewart is a 3-time Olympic medalist and the co-founder of SwimSwam.com, a Swimming News website.

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