Presentation from Session 2 of our Emerging Security Sector Leaders Seminar
Many analysts believed that Africa’s democratic reforms in the aftermath of the Cold War would make African governments more accountable and legitimate, leading to a reduction of political violence and civil war. In the first several decades after the Cold War, these optimistic analyses were largely correct. According to the Uppsala Conflict Dataset Program, the number of conflicts in Africa dropped significantly, from a high of 17 conflicts in 1998 to just seven ongoing conflicts in 2005. However, particularly since 2010, the number of armed conflicts that involve African states have increased, including those related to Boko Haram in Nigeria, jihadist and Tuareg insurgent activities in Mali, al-Shabaab in Somalia and Kenya, and civil wars in Libya, Central African Republic, and South Sudan.
In part, the recent surge of violence is due to the changing nature of conflict itself. In recent years, the most prevalent forms of conflict in Africa have been riots and protests, followed by violence against civilians and battles between state and non-state actors. Non-state armed conflicts and incidents of one-sided violence against civilians have also increased. The number of parties to various conflicts has risen over time because rebel organizations and violent extremist organizations frequently splinter and multiply. Violent extremist organizations, including Boko Haram, al-Shabaab, and affiliates of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and the Islamic State in West Africa Province, influence conflicts in multiple countries. More optimistically, the number of related fatalities is declining, and, in contrast to decades past, just a handful of African states bear the brunt of armed conflict.
There are multiple causes of political violence and conflict. Some important triggers or drivers of violence are poor governance, social exclusion, and weak rule of law. For instance, state-perpetrated human rights abuses and citizens’ perceptions of unjust treatment by the state is increasingly recognized as a core cause of violent extremism. Similarly, the World Bank’s 2018 Pathways for Peace report shows that “exclusion from access to power, opportunity, services, and security creates fertile ground for mobilizing group grievances into violence,” particularly in fragile states or states that are known for human rights abuses. Government corruption and popular demand for accountability have also triggered recent protests in many African countries such as Zimbabwe, South Africa, Malawi, Sudan, Burkina Faso, and Algeria. Africa’s future could continue to show increased conflict if changes do not occur in governance, rule of law, the public management of resources, and the inclusion of youth, women, and marginalized groups in governance and politics.
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