10X Gold is Coming! Gold Is About to Be the BIGGEST BREAKOUT STORY In History - Jim Rickards
Currency market dynamics have been a key factor in gold's recent performance. Although gold had previously demonstrated resilience despite a strong U.S. dollar, recent trading sessions have seen the metal struggle to hold its ground. Technical analysis indicates several signs of oversold conditions, suggesting the potential for a support level to form. The psychologically crucial 2,600 dollars mark aligns with the 100-day exponential moving average, a vital technical indicator supporting gold's upward momentum since March.
Economist and best-selling author James Rickards has set an ambitious price target for gold, projecting it could reach 23,000 dollars an ounce. He explains that this would be the necessary revaluation if gold were to back the U.S. dollar in the future. According to Rickards, the calculations are relatively simple: by analyzing the money supply—specifically M1, which includes money in circulation and bank deposits—and comparing it to the total U.S. gold reserves of approximately 8,133 metric tons, it is possible to estimate the price gold would need to reach to support the dollar effectively.
The United States M1 money supply reached approximately 18.15 trillion dollars by September 2024, showing a slight uptick from the previous year. This modest increase follows a period of contraction in late 2022 and early 2023, which starkly contrasted with the dramatic expansion seen from May 2020 onward. The U.K. maintained about 20% gold backing for its currency, while the U.S. had a 40% backing during certain periods.
Using historical benchmarks, Rickards argues that a 40% gold backing is a reliable measure to maintain confidence in the monetary system. To determine the necessary gold price, he calculates the dollar amount needed to cover 40% of the M1 money supply. Then, he divides this figure by the total number of gold ounces held by the U.S. government.
According to the latest Interim Silver Market Review from the Silver Institute, released Tuesday evening, the global silver market is expected to experience a physical deficit in 2024 for the fourth consecutive year, driven primarily by rising industrial demand. Global silver demand is projected to increase by 1% year-over-year, reaching 1.21 billion ounces in 2024. If achieved, this would mark the second-highest level of demand since Metals Focus began tracking these metrics in 2010.
James Rickards contrasts gold with silver, highlighting that while silver has historically served as a form of money, it also plays a significant role as an industrial metal. This dual nature makes analyzing silver more challenging. In times of economic recession, gold tends to rise as a safe-haven asset, and silver generally follows suit. However, because of its industrial applications, a downturn can reduce demand for silver, causing it to temporarily lag behind gold's performance.
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