The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration just released its 2018 hurricane forecasts. Here’s why it matters.


Buckle up for another wild ride.

The federal government predicts a near- or above-average 2018 hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin, where five to nine hurricanes are expected to form.

Overall, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts 10 to 16 named tropical storms will develop in the region, which includes the Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, the agency announced Thursday. The season officially begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

Of the hurricanes, one to four could be major, with wind speeds of 111 mph or higher and rated Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale of Hurricane Intensity. An average season typically spawns six hurricanes and peaks in August and September.

A tropical storm contains wind speeds of 39 mph or higher and becomes a hurricane when winds reach 74 mph.

Even before the official season kicks into gear, forecasters are watching a system predicted to spin up in the Gulf of Mexico over the Memorial Day weekend.

“There are no climate signals that suggest this season will be extremely active like last season or extremely weak,” said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
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