(5 Aug 2016) People in Thailand will vote on Sunday in a referendum on whether to accept a new draft constitution, amid criticism that the charter is undemocratic and gives too much power to the military.
But one of the draft writers says it will usher in a new era of clean politics and stability in a country chronically short of both in recent years.
Critics warn it's a stalking horse, which, if passed, will emasculate democracy and cement military control for years to come. To compound their fears, the government banned campaigning in the run-up: a move analysts say was calculated to prevent scrutiny and suppress negative comment.
"Get out and vote". That was the message from organisers this week as Sunday's referendum loomed; one last push to motivate the masses to pass judgment on this version of Thailand's supreme law.
The commission that wrote the draft charter was wholly appointed by the junta. Its 279 clauses give a prominent role to unelected senators and to unelected bodies like the constitutional court. The intention is to reduce the power of politicians. The drafters blame them for Thailand's messy and violent recent history and believe curbs on their authority are what the people want.
"What we are trying to do is have a cleaner government, have better politicians who view the interests of the people at heart," says Norachit Sinhaseni, one of the commission members.
But critics say the charter will set Thai democracy back years. Its formula for calculating election results will produce weak coalition governments and allow their overthrow through embedded legal mechanisms. It will, critics say, let the military, who seized power in 2014, maintain control while hiding behind a veneer of democracy.
"This draft constitution is undemocratic and if it is passed people will have no power and the NCPO and the military will actually have power for a very long time", says Chaturon Chaisang, a minister in the overthrown government of Yingluck Shinawatra.
Those debating, arguing or campaigning against the draft charter ahead of the referendum could face a military court and the prospect of 10 years in jail.
On 23 June, 13 students, members of The New Democracy Movement, were arrested in Thailand while they were distributing pamphlets, urging people to vote 'no'.
Officially, campaigning on the referendum is banned. People must make up their own minds, free from the self-interested influence of politicians, says the junta.
However, cadets in military uniform were seen last month giving out leaflets explaining the draft charter. Critics say this sends a subliminal message to vote "yes". One analyst believes there is a clear agenda to this information vacuum.
"The lack of open campaigning is effectively a one-sided campaign", says Thitinan Pongsudhirak, of the Institute of security and International Studies.
"The intention is to have campaigns for the constitution ….because a lot of credibility is on the line for the junta. But it also means it has boomeranged because the other side now has gathered some steam."
What happens if the charter is rejected? That has been left vague but this much is clear: there Thitinan believes there will be no resignations and no military retreat from power.
"It's a set-back to the credibility of the junta, certainly, but it's not going to see the back of them. They have insisted to remain in power. A 'no' vote will mean we start over," says Thitinan.
The junta has promised an election next year whatever happens on Sunday, but the question is, under what constitution?
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