A regional severe weather outbreak consisting of all severe hazards is likely across the midwest. This includes a significant risk of several tornadoes (few strong & long tracked), 80+ mph damaging winds, and large hail.

** This Is Now Considered A Regional Tornado Outbreak **

.....Discussion, Midwest…..
An amplifying 500mb trough is forecasted to eject into the high plains at around 15z Friday as noted on the latest hi-res models. At the surface, a deepening surface low over Southern Nebraska will track East-northeastward into Northern Iowa by 22z, This will be associated with a triple point with a cold front draped across Northern Central Iowa into Nebraska with a dryline positioned from Central Iowa Southward into Missouri Arkansas and Northeastern Texas. Out ahead of the dryline and behind the warm front will be a broadening warm sector, Throughout this warm sector dew points are expected to range between the low 60s and mid-60s in central Iowa and much of the Missouri Valley with upper 50 to low 60 dew points in Illinois, Indiana and Southern Wisconsin. This moisture will be transported beneath a strengthening 850 mb low-level jet of 70 to 85 kts. Now with steepening mid-level lapse rates atop a moist warming boundary layer will yield moderate to strong instability with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 j/kg. With that being said the environment just south of the triple point and along the dryline into Central Missouri will be supportive of organized initial intense discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards including strong tornadoes large hail and damaging wind gusts. The highest tornado threat will be augmented by the strengthening low-level jet over Southeastern Iowa, Eastern Missouri such as St. Louis where a few soundings out of the KSTL and Springfield MO, exhibit very large curved hodographs with substantial veering in the lowest 2 kilometers effective Bulkshear magnitudes exceeding 85 kts, and Central and Western Illinois. Therefore several tornadoes are anticipated with a few strong tornadoes even if upscale growth into a QLCS develops. Now further east into Eastern Illinois and Indiana, the primary Hazard will be 75+ mph damaging winds as instability decreases with Eastward extent likely due to poor moisture quality and less steep mid-level lapse rates.

…..Ozarks…..
Further south into Northeastern Texas Arkansas and Louisiana where a dryline will be draped overhead will be the primary focusing mechanism for numerous discrete supercells capable of several strong tornadoes including a violent tornado perhaps. Out ahead of this dew points in the upper 60s will yield strong instability with MLCAPE of 2000-2500 j/kg, along with a 50 to 65 kt low-level jet that does support enlarged curved photographs with effective bulk Shear magnitudes exceeding 60 kts. Therefore even if multi-cell storms do develop there will be the potential for long-tracked strong tornadoes with a violent tornado that cannot be ruled out Especially in northeastern Arkansas where the LLJ will be stronger than areas further south. Therefore I have opt into putting a 15 Sig for tornadoes From Southern Missouri into Northern and Northeastern Arkansas, Other than that the primary Hazard will be strong tornadoes and significantly strong winds of 65-75+ mph. This does conclude a potential regional outbreak of tornadoes.

Forecaster David Schlotthauer....3/30/2023

Video Chapters:
0:00 - Intro
0:31 - Current Weather
2:16 - Very Detailed Severe weather Update
13:02 - Day 2 SPC Outlook
15:49 - Watching Tuesday Very Closely
19:52 - Important Announcements
20:48 - Outro

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