Astronomers have seen some incredible occurrences across space and time. There are novae: fusion flares on white dwarf stars’ surfaces. There are supernovae: explosive stellar cataclysms. In between those two are a novel phenomenon: luminous red novae. These outbursts persist for months, glowing and echoing in visible and infrared light. V838 Monocerotis emitted a spectacular one in 2002. The leading explanation is a mergeburst: when two stars, already in contact, merge into one. The merging contact binaries V4332 Sagittarii and V1309 Scorpii created luminous red novae. Such identifications led to a question, “can we predict the next luminous red nova?”Perhaps: by observing contact binaries with quickening orbital periods. As the period shortens, the two stars approach a merger. When a critical “closeness” is reached, it triggers a luminous red nova. The binary system KIC 9832227 looked perfect: a contact binary whose period is shortening. A 2017 prediction, using new and archival data, indicated an upcoming merger in 2022. However, a timing error was swiftly uncovered and corrected, negating the 2022 prediction. Instead, the period first lengthened before recently shortening, presenting yet another mystery. KIC 9832227 may eventually make a luminous red nova, but probably not in 2022. Mostly Mute Monday tells an astronomical story in images, visuals, and no more than 200 words. Talk less; smile more.


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