UK
ONS, 19th January
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December and October antibody percentages
Seroconversion, 14 – 21 days
Length of time antibodies remain at detectable levels in the blood is not fully known
England
One in eight (12%) up from 7%
Wales
One in 10 (10%) up from 4%
Scotland
One in 11 (9%) up from 7%
Northern Ireland
One in 13 (8%) up from 2%
United States
Cases, 23,653,919
Deaths, 394,495
Hospitalizations, 123,848
Vaccinations, 13,989,000 doses given
Completed courses, 1,720,000 (0.53%)
https:/covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases
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Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
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COVID-19 Results Briefing: United States of America
Current situation
Effective R, greater than 1 in 27 states
Effective R is less than 1 in most of the midwest
Estimated, 22% have been infected as of January 11
US population, 328 million
Therefore number of infections = 72,160,000
Factor of 3 more
Therefore IFR = 0.48%
CFR = 1,67%
Trends
Deaths, 567,000 by May 1
This represents 192,000 additional deaths from January 11 to May 1
Likely peak at the beginning of February
Daily deaths will peak at 3,680 on February 1, 2021
Steady decline after the peak
Reaching below 500 a day sometime in April
Factors, seasonality and the scale-up of vaccination
By May 1, some states may be close to herd immunity
If more transmissible variants spread in the US in the coming weeks
Peak could be delayed by weeks
Death toll substantially increased
Hospitals in many states will be under severe stress in the next four weeks
To reduce deaths, masks, some social distancing mandates, rapid scale-up of vaccination
Drivers and prevention
Mobility continues to decline, 33% lower than the pre-COVID-19 baseline
Visits to restaurants and department stores up substantially from the weeks prior.
As of January 11, 76% of people always wore a mask when leaving their home
All states had mask use over 50%.
US, 52.5% of people say they would accept a vaccine, 24.1% unsure
We expect, 141 to 179 million people will be vaccinated by May 1
Projections
By May 1, 2021, we project that 37,800 to 51,100 lives will be saved by the vaccine rollout
Compared to a no-vaccine scenario
If universal mask coverage (95%), 31,000 fewer cumulative deaths on May 1, 2021
Mandates easing scenario, 621,000 cumulative deaths on May 1, 2021
January to May, 42 states will have high or extreme stress on hospital beds
January to May, 45 states will have high or extreme stress on ICU capacity
Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, December 29, 2020–January 12, 2021
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Detected in 10 U.S. states
Potential to increase the U.S. pandemic trajectory in the coming months
Increased transmissibility of the B.1.1.7 variant
Warrants universal and increased compliance with mitigation strategies
Higher vaccination coverage might need to be achieved to protect the public
Genomic sequence, National SARS-CoV-2 Strain Surveillance, targeted approach to identifying variants of
concern in the United States
Brazil
Oxford Astrazeneca and Sinovac, granted an emergency use authorisation in Brazil by ANVISA today (17/01).
Sinovac vaccine, 6 million doses manufactured in China are already available and vaccination has started today
Brazil Instituto Butantan manufactures the AZ vaccine
Oxford vaccine, vaccination is expected to start soon
